Stuck on who to bet on for NFL Week 6? Well, this is your guide to getting unstuck. We’ve analyzed the matchups and picked out three games most worth putting on. Keep reading to get our free betting picks!
Against The Spread: San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
Is San Francisco going to lose a game this season? It’s honestly fair to wonder given its dominant play through five weeks. That’s why we were surprised the 49ers are only five-point favorites over the Browns across the top NFL betting sites. Here’s how the odds shake out:
San Francisco has yet to show any ounce of weakness up and down its team. They’ve scored 30 points in all five games played. They’ve surrendered only 20 points once so far. Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy are MVP frontrunners. Things could not be going smoother with Kyle Shanahan’s operation.
Until we see any weakness out of the 49ers, we’re inclined to take its spread every single week. Seriously — they’re that damn good. You could play devil’s advocate this week and argue, “well Cleveland had a bye week so they got an extra week of preparation.” Maybe, but the Browns just aren’t at the same level talent- and coaching-wise as the 49ers. So that extra week means little to us. To us, San Francisco is the no-brainer bet here.
Over/Under 48 Points: Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are whopping 14-point favorites over Carolina. We like this Miami team and we’re quite pessimistic about Carolina, but still, 14 points is too much for us in the NFL. However, we’re far more comfortable betting the Panthers-Dolphins over/under line of 48 points.
Let’s get one thing out of the way, Miami has a top-3 offense in the NFL. A week ago, the Dolphins only held the ball for 24 minutes, had three turnovers, and still racked up 524 yards and 31 points. Mind you, that was an “off game” for the Miami attack. If this team is clicking, at least 40 points should be the expectation against a winless Carolina squad (the only 0-win team league-wide).
The Panthers have a suspect defense. Anytime they play someone that can score, they get trounced — giving up 42 points to the Lions and 37 to the Seahawks. They’ve fared better against bad teams (Falcons, Saints, and Vikings) but the Dolphins are certainly in the former category.
Of course, the question then becomes can Carolina hold their end of the bargain and score? We mean, Miami alone probably isn’t hitting 48 points so you’ll need the Panthers to muster something to get the over. Honestly, our confidence is quite low on the road team. Statistically, No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young is the least productive passer this season. His average pass length per completion is just 2.85 yards and that’s just not going to cut it. Carolina might get shut out this game, which is why we’re inclined to take the under.
Against The Spread: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets
The Eagles open up as 6.5-point favorites against the Jets, in spite of being on the road. They’re one of two teams that are still undefeated, yet feel somewhat unremarkable. Don’t get us wrong, the reigning NFC champions are still good, but they feel “beatable” if that makes sense.
Philly is fresh off a nine-point win against the LA Rams. Still, it’s obvious the Bird Gang’s offense just hasn’t gelled quite yet this season, and that was on display against the Rams in a game the Eagles held possession for almost 38 minutes. The team mustered only 23 points despite the huge clock advantage. This year, Philadelphia’s only win against a winning team was versus the 3-1 Bucs so excuse us for our “meh” feeling toward them.
New York has the exact defense that can make Philly’s offensive woes worsen. This is one of the most talented defensive units league-wide. Its only real issue is being put in bad situations cause of the offense. But here’s the thing, the Jets are starting to roll offensively — namely because of the run game.
Running back Breece Hall exploded for 177 yards on 23 carries a week ago. That’s the exact formula New York needs cause they’re not going to win on the arm of Zach Wilson, even though the quarterback is showing signs of improvement. Yes, the Eagles have a solid front seven, but it also hasn’t been tested against this bad competition we mentioned. For these reasons, we’re confidently taking the Jets to cover at home.
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