The NFL is heating up — both for the playoff race and betting picture. Week 11 represents that with a load of betting opportunities. Keep reading to get our three favorite NFL Week 11 bets that could get you paid!
- What: NFL Week 11
- When: First game is Thursday, November 16
Over/Under 44 Points: Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens
At last, we get a good Thursday Night Football game with this matchup. The AFC North is stacked so neither Cincinnati or Baltimore can afford a loss in this divisional battle. The Ravens are three-point favorites on the spread, but that’s too close for us to call. Instead, we’re throwing money on the Bengals-Ravens over/under, which is set to 44 points by the NFL’s best betting sites:
Honestly, this is a must-win game for Cincy — as crazy as that sounds with seven games remaining. They are 5-4 at the moment and on the outside looking in playoff-wise. But the reason they need a win here is the tiebreakers. At the moment, the Bengals are 0-2 in the division and 1-4 in the AFC. Another loss would put them in a dire situation in the event they finished tied for a playoff spot.
Here’s what’s worrisome about Cincy though, its defense was pushed around in last weekend’s home loss to Houston. Middle-of-the-road players like wide-out Noah Brown gained 172 yards while running back Devin Singletary added another 150 yards on the ground. This could be a bad combo against a Baltimore team that’s put up at least 30 points in four consecutive games.
The Ravens lost last week too against the Browns, but shockingly, it was largely because of an ineffective defense of its own. Before the matchup, the unit led the league with only 13.8 points allowed per game. Yet, this same unit was mauled by rushing backups for 178 yards. Deshaun Watson also led a 14-point comeback.
We just don’t have much confidence in either team’s defenses right now. That’s why our money is going on the over in this Thursday Night showdown.
Against The Spread: New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Here’s another divisional matchup with a whole lot less playoff implications. New York has almost zero chance of sniffing the postseason while Washington will need to go on a run. We’re most invested in betting the Giants-Commanders spread, which is heavily lopsided. Here’s where the odds stand:
We’re intrigued by this game because of just how awful the G-Men are. The team right now, injured and all, is probably the worst in the entire NFL. Here’s a team that’s been outscored 79-23 the past two weeks — a differential of 56 points. Of course, the most obvious problem is quarterback. Third-stringer Tommy Devito has no business being a starter. Because of his ineptitude, opposing defenses just need to load the box and dare the Giants to throw it.
While Devito will get blamed for the struggles as of late, this New York defense isn’t much better. They just allowed 640 yards of offense to the Cowboys on Sunday — the most allowed by the Giants since 1943.
We expect a massive outing from Washington against this weak team. Commanders’ quarterback Sam Howell is one of the biggest surprises this 2023 season. Amazingly, Howell has three straight games with 300 yards passing and three TDs. This is no fluke performance and our money says Howell and company blow the doors off New York. This is our most confident bet of Week 11 so if you have extra money, this is the game to lay it down on.
Over/Under 44 Points: Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers
Here again, we have ourselves a 44-point over/under between the Chargers and Packers — two teams that’ve disappointed so far in 2023. Here’s how the odds are shaking out both ways:
It seems every LA game has ended the same for the last decade or so: the Bolts put up a bevy of points, but allow just as many. It comes down to the final drive or even the last play, then the Chargers find a way to lose in heartbreaking fashion. On repeat. It happened again this past Sunday as Los Angeles lost 41-38 in walk-off fashion to the Lions. Our money is a similar event plays out this week, which hints at the over.
This LA defense is head-scratchingly bad despite an array of talent and head coach who’s supposed to be a defensive-minded guy. Detroit went off for 533 yards on them, and while Green Bay isn’t as loaded offensively as them, we still think this matchup can spur Jordan Love and company. Love has had an up-and-down season, his first as the starter. But even he can move the ball against this Staley-led defense of the Chargers.
For what it’s worth, the Bolts should have no issue sorting themselves. Green Bay has one of the worst rush defenses in the league — a bad recipe against Austin Ekeler of LA. Take the over with confidence in this one.
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