The biggest attraction in boxing, Canelo Alvarez, returns to the ring this weekend to face Jaime Mungia. If you want to make money off the Cinco de Mayo showdown, you’ll want to keep on reading. We have expert betting picks on Canelo vs. Mungia right here for you!
- What: Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Mungia
- When: Saturday, May 4
- Where: in T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
- How To Watch: DAZN PPV
Canelo vs. Mungia Preview
There’s only one way to begin this preview of Canelo and Mungia — the betting odds. No surprise, Canelo is a big favorite to win at the top betting sites for boxing. Here’s where the odds stand:
Chances are you know who Canelo is, but maybe you’re unfamiliar with Mungia. Welp, he’s a 27-year-old undefeated fighter at 34-0. Like Alvarez, he too was born in Mexico, but unlike him, he’s never won a major world championship. Mungia’s career pinnacle is winning the WBC Silver super middleweight title — a small feat compared to Canelo’s world titles in four weight classes.
All this is to say Canelo is a major step up in competition for Mungia. This makes it hard to level-set Mungia’s skills — how good is he really? How mediocre is he? We can’t answer anything for certain, but honestly, we don’t see many advantages for Mungia in this matchup. Outside of youth and cardio, Mungia can’t really outskill Alvarez anywhere else.
If there is one glimmer of hope though, it’s how they fared with their common opponent — John Ryder. Canelo fought him exactly a year ago and won a decision quite easily. Mungia fought him eight months later and actually finished him in the ninth round. Many take this as a sign that Mungia is a real threat to Alvarez. However, we’re less convinced.
Ryder is 35 years old. At that age, even eight months makes a bigger difference than most bettors would think. His skills diminish, and so does his chin — especially when Alvarez battered him so badly in their matchup. Fighting Ryder was savvy management by Mungia’s team to set up this Canelo fight on the basis of “I beat him up more than you did.” It worked, but we’re not taking the bait as easily.
Best Bets For Canelo vs. Mungia
We’ll be skipping the moneyline bet we mentioned before. It just doesn’t have any betting value. However, that is not the case with Canelo vs. Mungia betting props. There’s actual money to be made here and we have two, in particular, we’re eying:
Over/Under 10.5 Rounds
Here’s your classic bet on how long the fight ends up lasting. As it stands, oddsmakers have set the line at 10.5 rounds:
For starters, we just see almost no way for Mungia to win this fight. The skills difference is simply too much between both fighters. In boxing, the flash KO is always a possibility, but it’s a slim one here. That’s because Canelo has an iron chin that’s been tested by the best boxers of his generation — and no one has cracked it. If Canelo can take Gennady Golovkin’s best punch, he can take whatever Mungia throws at him, even at this age.
So the question becomes, can Canelo finish his opponent early? He can, but we have our doubts. See, since knocking out Caleb Plant in 2021, Canelo has gone 3-1 — and all of those wins came by decision. Alvarez is now entering his mid-30s and it seems he’s losing his power with it.
There’s been a lot of talk about Canelo’s diminishing skills — is it real or made up by his critics? We think the answer is in the middle. Yes, Canelo is slightly less sharp, but even Canelo at 85-90-percent capacity is miles ahead of most opponents.
We’re betting Canelo wins another decision here. It won’t be a layup fight by any means, but Alvarez will win comfortably on the points. The bet to make her is over.
Method of Victory Prop
Alright, this prop is where the most betting value lies. It’s a bet on not just who wins, but how. The betting options are as follows:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canelo by KO | +170 | +170 | +170 |
| Canelo by Decision | -145 | -145 | -145 |
| Mungia by KO | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Mungia by Decision | +700 | +700 | +700 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
You already know what our pick is — Canelo by decision. But look at those -145 odds for that outcome. It’s significantly better than getting Alvarez at -525 on the moneyline or even the over/under we just covered. We remain steadfast in our belief that this one is going the distance so we’d “size up” on this bet. Seriously, the power just isn’t there for Canelo anymore.
How To Bet On Canelo vs. Mungia
You know who and what to bet on Canelo vs. Mungia, but do you know where to wager it at? Now you do because we have five bookies below. Per our latest sportsbook reviews, these are among the best bookmakers for all things boxing.
Even more, these same bookies are offering big-money sign-up bonuses for betting there. Bonuses can even reach as much as $2500 in free play at some sites. Yes. That money can go toward betting this bout for free too. Reference the table underneath for a list of the very best deals around ahead of fight night.
