The only thing that could possibly make Thanksgiving day any better is stuffing your pockets with money from sports betting. Welp, the NFL will give you an opportunity to do so with three games on Thursday. Read this to get our best picks for NFL Thanksgiving — completely free of cost!
Against The Spread: Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions
Detroit is at home and on a three-game winning streak. Despite two obvious advantages, NFL betting sites are cutting the Lions zero slack by making them 10-point underdogs against the visiting Bills.
There’s ample evidence to suggest that Buffalo is reeling right now. Here’s the most startling one: Josh Allen has a passer rating of less than 80 in three of his past four games. Allen has especially been turnover-prone, throwing six interceptions and losing a fumble in that same span. Many attribute the struggles to an elbow injury sustained several weeks ago.
Whatever the case is, we expect the Bills to be more run-heavy against the Lions. Beyond Allen’s struggles, a run-first approach is warranted against a Detroit team that has the 31st-ranked defense against the rush in the NFL. Buffalo played the 32nd-ranked rushing defense last week (Cleveland) and gashed them for 171 yards. But here’s the issue: the Bills moved the chains but struggled to score touchdowns. It kicked six field goals in last week’s win with only two touchdowns.
If Buffalo is covering 10 points, then scoring touchdowns is likely a must — especially against a Detroit team that doesn’t struggle to put up points themselves. Jared Goff is quietly amid a career resurgence. Running back Jamal Williams leads the league in rushing touchdowns. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the fast-rising players in his position.
We think the Lions are covering here. This is the first Thanksgiving game it’s hosting with some momentum and their side, which should vault them to a close game bare minimum.
Against The Spread: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
We’re not going to lie, our eyes at first widened when we saw the Giants-Cowboys spread. Widened because Dallas was a whole 10-point favorite against a division rival.
Perhaps that wide spread is influenced by the Cowboys' performance last weekend. They beat down a one-loss Vikings team 40-3 despite being on the road. Offensively and defensively, Dallas looked Super Bowl-caliber in that matchup. Or perhaps the lopsided spread is influenced by an earlier-season meeting won by Dallas 23-16 in New York’s home stadium. That game also came with Cooper Rush under center — not Dak Prescott, who appears to be back to normal now.
Whatever the case may be, a 10-point line at first felt unjustified here. After all, the Giants have an equal 7-3 record to the Cowboys land yes, as division does, they’re used to Dallas’ playing tendencies. But then we dug deeper, we uncovered a startling stat: in 11 of the last games these two teams have met, the Cowboys have covered the spread nine times.
While head coach Brian Daboll has sparked this Giants team, its talent level is not all that different from than G-mean teams of old. That’s why we could see the Cowboys running away with this matchup, covering in the process. We’re betting that in fact happens here.
Over/Under 42.5 points: New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings
The nightcap of Thanksgiving games features two teams coming off miserable offensive performances. As mentioned before, Minnesota mustered a measly three points. The same applies to New England, however, they managed to win after a special-teams touchdown. Given those pitiful performances, it’s not a surprise the Pats-Vikings over/under is set at just 42.5.
We’re going to be straight up here and say the under is happening. We say that because our confidence in New England’s offense is almost zero. Mac Jones has regressed in his sophomore season — and it’s not just his fault. The Pats' coaching has failed him. The team changed offensive systems from year one to year two and is calling plays not to lose rather than win. In a short week, all those problems will likely persist.
The Vikings' attack isn’t as worrisome, admittedly. Yes, they were almost shutout against the Cowboys, but this offense averaged 28 points per game during its seven-game win streak before. Justin Jefferson is still capable of breaking any play into a touchdown.
The issue is New England has one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL. They rank high in several defensive categories — yards allowed (fourth), points (second), and interceptions (third). At the very least, the Pats’ defense will muster a strong performance on primetime versus the Vikings offense. It’s all these reasons that the under is the smart bet to make here.
How To Bet On NFL Thanksgiving Games?
The best place to bet on three NFL Thanksgiving matchups is one of the bookmakers listed underneath. They’ll have any and all betting lines for the holiday games, plus the rest of Week 12.
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