Don’t even think about betting on UFC 294 until you read this fully. We’re offering three free betting picks on the card’s top fights, including Islam Makhachev’s rematch with Charles Oliveira!
- What: UFC 294
- When: Saturday, October 21
- Where: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Islam Makhachev vs. Charles Oliveira Betting Pick
The main event features a highly-anticipated rematch for the lightweight belt between Makhachev and Oliveira. It’s probably no surprise that the top UFC betting sites have pegged the first fight’s winner, Makhachev, as the favorite again. Here’s how the Makhachev-Oliveira odds are shaking out:
We have to start with their first meeting at UFC 280 almost exactly a year ago. That night was originally Makhachev’s crowning when he submitted Oliveira in the second round with a triangle choke. Crowning because it was long expected that he would one day follow his teammate, Khabib Nurmagomedov, as division champion. Like Khabib, Makhachev dominated on the ground with over five minutes of control team in a fight that lasted just barely over eight minutes.
Well stop short of saying Oliveira was dominated in the fight, but he was noticeably the lesser fighter — on that night at least. But hey, UFC 294 is a new night, and it’s not unthinkable to believe Oliveira will right his wrongs. Oliveira really earned this rematch when he finished Beneil Dariush over the summer. Dariush, who is a strong wrestler and grappler not unlike Makhachev, couldn’t last a single round thanks to Oliveira’s fists.
To be fair to Makhachev, he’s also fought since capturing the belt. In February, he outlasted likely the best pound-for-pounder in Alexander Volkanovski, who is a fierce striker of his own. So if Oliveira sharpened his skills in the last year, so has the reigning champion.
In the end, our money is still squarely on Makhachev. Obviously, you can’t discredit Oliveira, who has the most finishes in promotion history. But we don’t see a scenario where he can hang with Makhachev on the ground. Makhachev is a special grappler and wrestler, which he’ll use to secure another win here. Bet on the champ to retain.
Paulo Costa vs. Khamzat Chimaev Betting Pick
There’s a lot of bad blood between these two and a woman — it’s always a woman, isn’t it? Look, we don’t want to get into the drama, but from a betting perspective, it’s Chimaev’s fight to lose as he’s a staggering -365 favorite on the moneyline. We see more betting value in taking the Costa-Chimaev over/under instead. The line has yet to be released, but we don’t think that matters for reasons we’ll get into.
Chimaev is officially a middleweight, and it appears he’s here to stay. He has not fought since September 2022, a fight he missed weight, which forced this move to middleweight. Chimaev has never once lost over his career and has largely dominated everyone he’s fought thanks to out-of-this-world wrestling.
Costa is a good introduction to middleweight. We mean, he’s a top-10 fighter but he’s also not a true title contender, having lost to Israel Adesanya badly in his own title shot. Costa is a striker through and through, however, his takedown defense is quite good. He’ll really need to lean on that to stay off the ground against Chimaev.
We won’t care what the over/under ends up — likely 1.5 rounds like usual — but we think Chimaev is going to dominate in this one, just as he’s done his whole career. Costa is consistently inconsistent (especially in big fights), hasn’t fought in even longer than Chimaev, and just doesn’t inspire betting confidence. Throw in the real-life beef these two have and to us, Chimaev is earning the finish in round one. Hammer the under here once the line goes live.
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker Betting Pick
Here’s another UFC 294 fight not expected to be overly competitive. As it stands, Ankalaev is -335 on the moneyline. Therefore, we’ll also have to jump on the Ankalaev-Walker over/under to dig for value. Like the pick before this, we anticipate this being an early finish.
First of all, Ankalaev is likely in line for a light heavyweight title shot soon with a win. Of course, he’s coming off a draw with Jan Blachowicz that was for the vacant title. Personally, we thought he did enough to win, but that’s neither here nor there. Ankalaev is an excellent fighter, but his grappling is his strongest suit.
Then there’s Walker, who’s tough to put a finger on. On one hand, he’s a KO artist with 16 of 22 career wins coming by that. At the same time, he’s prone to being knocked out too. Four of seven losses have been by the way of KO.
So to us, this fight is ending early — most likely in favor of Ankalaev. At the same time, Walker’s only real path to victory is a stoppage so he might come out head-hunting. All these signs point toward an under so that’s the bet to make.
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