The 2023 NFL Draft on April 27 is fast approaching. There’s a host of bets available at the top-used NFL betting sites on who gets drafted where. In this article, we sift through the madness to offer you the three best betting picks for the 2023 NFL Draft!
First Overall Pick
The first overall pick belongs to Carolina. They traded a king’s ransom — two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and wide receiver D.J. Moore — to Chicago to move up for it. You don’t give up that much unless it’s for a franchise quarterback so there’s zero doubt the Panthers are going signal-caller with this choice. The question is, which one? Here’s a list of betting options for first overall pick:
| Player |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| CJ Stroud | -300 | -300 | -300 |
| Bryce Young | +225 | +225 | +225 |
| Anthony Richardson | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Will Levis | +4000 | +4000 | +4000 |
As you can see above, it’s really a decision between two players — ‘Bama’s Young and Ohio State’s Stroud. Young represents the more modern-day player in the position, and that’s someone who can move with his feet. While he isn’t a prolific scrambler, Young does have superior athleticism to Stroud. That allows him to make players with his feet, mainly buying time for the passing game to break open — a trait most of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL possess today.
Stroud isn’t as mobile, but he makes up for that in size. He is more than three inches and 20 pounds heavier than Young. The arm strength advantage also goes to Stroud, who can sling it with velocity more than his counterpart. Stroud has traits you’d look for in a prototypical pocket passer, who was more coveted only a few years ago before mobility became such a premium ability.
Carolina has solid choices with either one, but bettors might want to stick with the one with actual betting value and that’s Young. Stroud’s -300 betting line means a payoff will be limited if he indeed goes number one. For all we know, Carolina is throwing smoke screens and really has Young on their draft board higher. Those rumblings usually don’t come out until later, and if so, you want to have money on Young already before betting lines change. Take Young here cause of his betting upside!
Stetson Bennett Draft Position
Bennett is one of the most recognizable players in the 2023 NFL Draft, but that doesn’t mean his draft stock is high. The two-time national champion for Georgia at quarterback has a late-round draft value according to the oddsmakers, which you can see below:
| Draft Position | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Round | +6000 | +6000 | +6000 |
| Second Round | +2800 | +2800 | +2800 |
| Third Round | +1000 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Fourth Round | +450 | +450 | +450 |
| Fifth Round | +375 | +375 | +375 |
| Sixth Round | +250 | +250 | +250 |
| Seventh Round | +275 | +275 | +275 |
| Not Drafted | +350 | +350 | +350 |
In early February, famed ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. had Bennett ranked eighth in the 2023 quarterback class. In the rankings, Kiper said size was what was hurting Bennet’s draft stock despite high college production and good film tape. Bennett comes in just under six feet tall and 200 pounds, which is a red flag in draft scouting (top prospect Bryce Young is shorter but he makes up for the deficiency elsewhere with his running ability).
One more negative Bennett has going for him is one typically not associated with a rookie — age. Get this, Bennett is 25 years old. Because of COVID, he was able to extend his college eligibility to a full six years. There are several NFL quarterbacks that are younger than Bennett including Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, and Tua Tagovailoa, who are all going into year four in the league. Bennet’s age puts a ceiling on his upside, which is another factor that teams draft off of.
To us, Bennett is a clear-cut day-three pick (rounds four through seven). Going undrafted would be a real shock to us given his big-game moments in college. Our money is going on a sixth-round choice. There’s a team that’ll take a flyer on him at that round, which is usually reserved for players on the fringe of making a 53-man roster. Bennett will likely have to earn that roster spot, if not be a practice squad player.
Team To Draft Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Alright, enough with quarterbacks. Another high-prized prospect is Buckeye’s wide receiver Smith-Njigba, who is expected to be the first to get chosen from his position. Who that team eventually becomes is the subject of this Smith-Njigba bet. Take a look at the leading options to draft him:
| Team | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| Chicago Bears | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Green Bay Packers | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| New England Patriots | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Draw | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Tennessee Titans | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| New York Giants | +900 | +900 | +900 |
| Baltimore Ravens | +900 | +900 | +900 |
Smith-Njigba to Houston feels written in the stars. That’s because the Texans also own the second-overall pick. Most expect them to take whoever is left out of the Stroud-Young dilemma at that spot. But the Texans also own the 12th overall pick, and that’s where Smith-Njigba fits in. After all, pairing its rookie QB with a number-one receiver makes a whole lot of sense. Houston traded its former No. 1 receiver Brandon Cooks so there’s a need for someone like Smith-Njigba. All this makes a pairing between the two a must-bet proposition.
How To Bet On 2023 NFL Draft?
There’s a plethora of 2023 NFL Draft bets available beyond the three we covered above. To get the full list, visit one of the bookmakers listed underneath. All of the sites you see here received high marks in our latest sportsbook reviews for their NFL betting menu, which extends into the draft — the premier event of the football offseason.
But best of all, the sites underneath offer big-money sign-up bonuses to new players. What do we mean by “big money”? We’re talking, $500 to $2500 in free play, depending on what site you choose. You can see what offers are available where in the table below. Pick one and voila, your NFL Draft bets could effectively be free!
