Boxing’s biggest box-office draw, Canelo Alvarez, returns to the ring, this time against Jermell Charlo. Keep reading for a complete guide to betting Canelo vs. Charlo, including our free betting picks to make.
- What: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo
- When: Saturday, September 30
- Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
Canelo vs. Charlo Fight Preview
The best way to begin a preview of Canelo vs. Charlo is to look at the current betting odds. No surprise, Canelo is the moneyline favorite across the top boxing betting sites. However, it’s not as one-sided as we’ve gotten accustomed to seeing. Here’s the latest odds:
Both fighters are decorated champions. Canelo will put his four super middleweight championships on the line as Charlo, the undisputed junior middleweight champion, moves up for this fight. However, we want to focus on Charlo because he’s one of the better opponents Canelo has faced in the past few years (excluding Dmitry Bivol) and casual fans probably don’t realize it.
This is the biggest fight of Charlo’s career, and some may say it’s a “money grab” — he is moving up two weight classes to make this happen after all — but his career resume begs otherwise. Charlo has one loss and a draw on his 35-1-1 record. Both those blemishes he avenged. First he KO’d Tony Harrison, who handed him his only loss. The same happened to Brian Castano, a year after they drew, Charlo finished him.
Those pair of fights show us two things. One, Charlo cares about his legacy. Two, he’s a head-hunter who wants to put his opponent away without giving the judges a choice. That’s a quality you want against Alvarez, who will be protected because of his name value. Fighting the pound-for-pound best in the world is a legacy fight in itself for Charlo so we believe he’ll be aggressive from the opening bell.
With that said, Charlo is the smaller fighter here. Will Charlo's power translate after moving up two weight divisions? If yes, then he has a chance to steal this fight and hand Canelo is third career loss. We’ll tell you what we think next when we lay out our betting predictions.
Canelo vs. Charlo Betting Picks
There are numerous Canelo vs. Charlo bets available at bookmakers. But after analyzing the fight, we’ve settled on the following three picks:
Over/Under 10.5 Rounds
We mentioned Charlo’s head-hunting ways earlier. He’s won four consecutive fights by KO against top talent at light middleweight. Still, there’s no way Charlo is dropping Canelo — not when he has to move up 14 pounds. Canelo’s chin is something to behold. If Gennady Golovkin can’t put him on the canvas, then we’d be shocked if Charlo can.
Still, Charlo will at least stay on the offensive. That could be to his benefit or detriment. Benefit because Canelo is known to slow start and also has a so-so gas tank. Charlo could swing some sounds his way if his output stays high. At the same time, you don’t want to give Canelo any openings to land big on you. Charlo might if he’s overaggressive, and that’s dangerous given the size differences.
Canelo will have his opportunity to get Charlo out early. However, we don’t think he will as well explain next. Take the under here!
Moneyline
Dare we say Canelo is on the decline? Nevermind being outclassed by Bivol, which admittedly, was a bad matchup for the P4P king. But last time out, versus John Ryder, Canelo took a decent licking despite the unanimous decision victory. To us, Canelo’s defense and stamina appear to be on the clear deadline. In Canelo’s three previous fights — the other being the trilogy with Golovkin — he faded as the fight went on.
Canelo from a few years ago would drop Charlo, but now, 33 years old and 63 fights on his odometer, it won’t be as easy — not even with the advantages in experience and size. We sense it’s a close fight that goes the distance. However, any close round will go to Canelo because, well, it’s boxing and the Mexican is the cash cow of the sport. Canelo winning is the pick to make here.
Prop
Admittedly, the Canelo moneyline isn’t exactly dripping with betting value. For that reason, it’s worth digging into the Canelo-Charlo prop betting market. In doing so, we fell in love with the exact fight outcome line. Here’s the betting options for it:
| Outcome |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlo by Stoppage | +950 | +950 | +950 |
| Charlo by Decision | +475 | +475 | +475 |
| Canelo by Stoppage | +240 | +240 | +240 |
| Canelo by Decision | -130 | -130 | -130 |
| Draw | +1600 | +1600 | +1600 |
We said Canelo by decision and we’re sticking to that. Getting that outcome at -130 is a steal to us. We just don’t see a declining Canelo getting the KO so take the decision finish.
How To Bet On Charlo vs. Canelo?
There are dozens of Charlo vs. Canelo bets out there. The three above are our most confident outcomes, but the full list of wagers can be found at one of the bookmakers listed below. Per our latest sportsbook reviews, any one of these sites will have you covered for this “big fight” and others on the horizon. There are even lucrative sign-up bonuses available that could make your Canelo-Charlo gambling free. Reference the table underneath for full details.
