Over/Under 52.5 Points Betting Pick
Let's begin with the over/under bet, which is set at a modest 52.5 points by the best online sportsbooks. When evaluating this bet — or any other for that matter — it pays off to discuss when these two programs met in the SEC Championship game only a month ago. Back then, the Tide creamed the Bulldogs 41-24. Bama’s offensive output was the talking point after that matchup.
Georgia was the No. 1-ranked defense entering the face-off. Until then, it hadn’t allowed a single team to score 20 points and was holding opponents to only 6.9 points a game. But that meant nothing came game time as sophomore quarterback Bryce Young lit them up for 461 total yards of offense (an SEC title game record) and four touchdowns. The performance locked up the Heisman Trophy award for Young, to go along with the Maxwell Award (given to the best player in college football) and the Davey O'Brien Award (best quarterback) — a complete sweep of the premier collegiate hardware pieces.
The key to Young’s success versus the Dawgs — and what should be a difference-maker here again — was his mobility. This Georgia defense is anchored by a fearsome defensive line that likes to get to the quarterback. They did just that versus Alabama, only for Young to use his legs to evade them and make a big play downfield. In our opinion, Young is likely to repeat those big-play theatrics in the national title game.
And if he does, and over is almost guaranteed. Unfortunately for Alabama, they’ll be without big-play receiver John Metchie, who tore his ACL in the first meeting. But we have little doubt the program’s backup wide receiver can’t pick up the slack — the Tide are a wide receiver factory, after all, turning up multiple first-round picks routinely as of late. Have faith in Young to do damage to the Dawgs and hit the game’s over.
Against The Spread Betting Pick
In the SEC championships, the Rolling Tide were pegged by top football betting sites as a whopping 6.5-point underdogs — a rare occurrence for this “dynasty” program under Nick Saban. And despite a two-touchdown win that day, Bama are once again “dogs” by a 2.5- point spread in the rematch. What gives, right?
Look, we’re already on record saying that Georgia’s defense won’t fare any better this time around than the first time. However, its offense has much more potential to turn things around — and if it does, covering the spread becomes much more reasonable for the favorites.
As you’d expect with any offense, the key for Georgia is the quarterback, Stetson Bennett IV. He has a love-again, hate-again relationship with the fan base (and Dawg bettors), but the senior has one final shot at redemption. He had two interceptions — one of which was in the end zone — versus Bama the first time around so cleaning up the miscues is step number one for Bennett. He’s coming off a big game (313 passing yards and three touchdowns, while completing 67% of his attempts) against a good Michigan defense so the momentum is there.
While we think the Bulldogs will play a much closer game against the Tide on January 10, we still don’t think they’ll win outright, therefore, fail to cover the spread. And if history has anything to say, if you get Alabama as underdogs, you take it. In the Saban era, they are 5-3-1 against the spread when not favored.
Moneyline Betting Pick
Like we just said, Bama is winning this game, thus they are our default moneyline betting pick here at plus-money odds. In the end, it really comes down to this: Saban owns Georgia, plain and simple.
Saban holds a 9-2 record against Georgia — the second-best winning percentage among head coaches with at least five games versus the Bulldogs since 1978 (only Urban Meyer is better with a 5-1 mark). And on the flip side, Georgia’s Kirby Smart is 0-4 against his former program. Smart has done it all at Georgia — except beat his former mentor Saban and win a national title.
Simply put, Saban just evokes more betting confidence from us. We’ve said it before but we’ll say it again: it’s not a smart idea to bet against all-time greatness and Saban is the equivalent of that. Take Bama as underdogs here!
How To Bet On NCAAF National Title Game?
The last time Alabama-Georgia met in the CFP final (2018), the game and outcome were special (Tua Tagovailoa to DeVonta Smith in overtime to win it). An encore might be on tap come January 10 and you’ll want to have your bets placed on the NCAAF national title game before then. To do so, visit one of the bookmakers listed below.
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