But before we get to that, it's worth noting how Week 1 went. If you took our advice from last week, you went 2-1. That's not too shabby, especially considering the sportsbooks mostly cleaned up on opening week. Underdogs went 11-4 against the spread, with eight outright wins too. Will the same play out in week 2? We're not convinced, well, not on two of our betting picks at least.
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins
| Team |  |  |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | -3.5 (-103) | -3.5 (-105) |
| Miami Dolphins | +3.5 (-117) | +3.5 (-115) |
Both the Bills and Dolphins played right into the week 1 betting trend. Buffalo, six-and-a-half-point favorites, lost at home to Pittsburgh, while Miami went into New England as two-and-a-half-point underdogs and took home the 'W. But in this matchup, we fully expect Buffalo to take care of business and cover the spread.
Here's why: Josh Allen has lit up the Dolphins more than any other team in his first three seasons. In six games against the division rivals, here is Allen's gaudy stat line — 1,552 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a passer rating of 114.3. And remember, Allen was far from the MVP runner-up he finished in 2020 in years one and two. Yet, he still played like a star against Miami in those two seasons.
Allen's dominance against the Dolphins has also translated into big-time wins. He's 5-1 all-time versus Miami and four of those came by double digits. In fact, the average margin of victory for Buffalo in those five victories is an eye-popping 17 points. We see a similar uncompetitive game playing out again come Sunday, favoring the Bills.
Free betting pick: Bills to cover -4.5 spread
Over/Under 55 Points: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers
| Team | | |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | Over 55 points (-115) | Over 55 points (-110) |
| Carolina Panthers | Under 55 points (-105) | Under 55 points (-110) |
We're of the belief this matchup will feature a lot of pass attempts — and we mean A LOT. Just look at their week 1 passing totals. Dallas' Dak Prescott heaved 58 passes. Justin Herbert, in his sophomore debut for LA, threw 48 times. Both signals callers have shown they're capable of offensive outbursts and their play-callers are feeding off that.
Moreover, we believe both teams will have better red-zone success in this matchup than their opening game. Against the reigning champions Bucs, the Cowboys converted only one of four red-zone trips into a touchdown. The Chargers hardly fared better with two of its six trips inside the 20-yard line ending with a TD score. Just a modest uptick in red zone success from either team — if not both — will result in more points scored.
All in all, there are simply too many playmakers on both teams for this game to end in an under. Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Austin Ekler, Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, need we say more? Yep, take the over on the points.
Free betting pick: Over 55 points scored
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Without question, the Saints dealt the biggest shocker of week one. They drubbed Green Bay 38-3 in the neutral field of Jacksonville. It was the worst loss of Aaron Rodgers' career — one where he had a passer rating of 36.8 (tied for his fourth-worst ever).
That's why we're STUNNED New Orleans are measly three-point favorites over Carolina. Sure, the Panthers also won its week 1 matchup — 19-14 over the Jets — but c'mon, the outcomes aren't even comparable. One win came by five touchdowns versus the reigning MVP, the other was a five-point victory against a quarterback making his first-ever start.
We're all aboard the Saints bandwagon, certainly in week 2. Let's not forget head coach Sean Payton remains one of the league's brightest offensive minds. And for the first time in years, Payton has a thrower with deep-throw capability, something Drew Brees was lacking as he aged.
Jameis Winston really opens up the New Orleans' attack. Not only for big-play passes, but running the rock too. The Saints rushed 39 times for 171 yards in week one as its offensive line mauled the Packers. That passing-and-rushing combo will lead to another big victory from the revitalized Saints.
Free betting pick: Saints to cover three-point spread
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