Over/Under 50.5 Points: San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys
Without question, the most marquee game of the entire first round is the Niners and Cowboys. It'll undoubtedly be the most-watched and bet-on matchup at the best NFL betting sites. We legit have no clue who'll win or who'll cover the spread, however, we do think we grasp whether San Francisco-Dallas will reach 50.5 points or not.
Ready for our hot take? The Cowboys' turnover-happy defense is extremely overrated. There, we said it! With the benefit of playing in the weakest division in football (the NFC East), they've beat up on run-of-the-litter teams like Washington and New York. Moreover, Dallas is over-reliant on creating turnovers. Most opposing offenses have no issues moving the ball on them, evident by the 351 yards per game they're allowing (which ranks right in the middle of the league).
And here's another hot take: Jimmy Garoppolo is way better at quarterbacking than people give him credit it for. On the season, his QB rating of 98.7 ranked ninth overall — ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen for comparison's sake. We're fully of the belief that Jimmy G will do damage to the Cowboys' defense come Sunday.
Expect a shoot-out in this game, not only from Garoppolo but Dak Prescott and company, too. They're as talented as an offense as there is, and playing at home, they'll have no problem reaching the end zone. All signs point toward this game going into over territory.
Against The Spread: Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals
This game opens the playoffs slate on Saturday. Given the sheer grittiness that's put the Raiders in this position to begin with, we're making them our against-the-spread pick — despite being the third-biggest underdog of the weekend.
Here's a Las Vegas team that's won four games in a row — three of which they weren't favored in. We don't think the Raiders will take the outright victory in this game, but we're confident they'll play Cincinnati close. Not only because of its resiliency but the Bengals' own inexperience. Very few of its players, especially the core starters, have postseason experience in the NFL. Those nerves should interfere with them, at least early on.
Both teams are playing with a lot of confidence right now and we'd be stunned if this becomes a one-sided affair either way. Bet the Raiders' spread because this game might just come down to whoever holds the ball last.
Against The Spread: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
For the first time ever, a playoff game will be played on Monday night. It'll feature two division rivals who split the season series one game apiece and won 23 games combined. In this Arizona-LA matchup, we're being pulled toward betting the spread.
You've likely heard about the importance of being "hot" when entering the playoffs. Welp, both these teams finished the season with a bad loss. But here's the difference: it's been an ongoing thing for Arizona, not necessarily for Los Angeles. There's not a colder playoff team than the Cards, simple as that.
Here's a team that was 7-0 before. Since then? Arizona finished 4-6 with losses in four of its last five. Re-read that last sentence because that's how awful the Cardinals are playing despite the playoff berth.
The reason for another late-game slide (the second in as many years), you ask? A number of things but chief among them is shoddy coaching by Kliff Kingsbury, a defense that can't stop a nosebleed, and like every other team still alive, a depleted roster thanks to injuries.
We don't foresee any of those issues being fixed by Monday, which means the Rams roll to victory and cover the spread. Yes, we said, roll. Los Angeles has the type of playmakers that can expose this vulnerable Cardinals defense, which we expect to happen plenty and often.
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