Against The Spread: Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears
The top NFL betting sites have odds available for every game happening this week, however, one that immediately jumped out to us was the against-the-spread line between Arizona and Chicago. We believe the Cardinals are being undervalued here, or more accurately, the Bears are overvalued.
Chicago is absolutely pitiful on offense, no matter who is under center. Andy Dalton has filled in for injured Justin Fields the past two weeks and the Bears mustered just 29 points in that span. Fields might return to the starting lineup in week 13, but he'll be nursing injured ribs against an Arizona defense that's among the league's best, a potential recipe for disaster.
Here's where the Cardinals rank in major defensive categories: fourth in points allowed (18.6 per game), fifth in total yards (317.8), and tied for sixth in turnovers (19). That defense can pose nightmares for any opposing quarterback, little less one playing with injured ribs and taking plays from a coach on the cusp of being fired.
Moreover, Arizona might be getting the services back of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, as good of a quarterback-and-receiver combo as there is in the league. Coach Kliff Kingsbury said he's "hopeful" both will be back from injuries. Rustiness should be expected from them if they do suit up, but even at only 80 percent, those two players are still more dangerous than anyone on the Bears offense.
So yes, we're taking the seven points and the Cardinals. Amidst all the internal chaos, it's just tough to trust the Bears against the league's best team record-wise.
Over/Under 48 Points: Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams
After three straight losses, the Rams odds at winning it all have fallen off a cliff at the top sportsbooks for Super Bowl betting. It's not just that Los Angeles is losing, but they're not being very competitive. Those defeats came by 12 points (to the Titans minus Derrick Henry), 21 points (to 49ers), and eight points (versus the Packers). Despite the slide, we love the over/under line in the Rams next game against Jacksonville for two reasons.
Reason number one: Los Angeles needs a big win here. Four straight wins aren't acceptable for a team that's gone "all in" on winning with splashy trades and free-agent signings. Playing at home, against one of the NFL's worst teams, is the perfect remedy for the Rams to get those championship aspirations back on track.
Reason two: LA's big problem has been defense. This isn't the No. 1-ranked defense of 2020 anymore. Not even close. Anyone can seemingly gash them for big plays, heck, even a rookie quarterback like Trevor Lawrence should have a field day against them come Sunday.
Points will fly off the board in this one, courtesy of a desperate Rams offense full of playmakers and a leaky defense that can't stop a nose bleed. Hammer the over with confidence here!
Against The Spread: New York Giants at Miami Dolphins
This may come as a surprise to you but the Dolphins are one of the streakiest teams in the NFL having won four in a row. Despite that, Miami, at home, is only favored by three points in the against-the-spread line. Folks, that's value!
The key to the Dolphins mid-season turnaround (they started 1-7) has been improved defense. During the win streak, they're allowing an average of 11.5 points per game. We sense that trend continues against a woeful Giants team that's averaging just 18.4 points per game. Like the aforementioned Chicago, New York is also heading toward an offseason rebuild.
That alone is good enough reason to take Miami to win, but here's one more: Tua Tagovailoa is historically precise at quarterback. He's started eight games this year and in three of them, he's finished with a completion percentage of at least 80 percent. One more would set the NFL record. Yep, the Dolphins should have no problems covering three points here.
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