Against The Spread: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
We begin out West with a game featuring two Super Bowl contenders. Without question, the Rams-Cardinals spread will be one of the most bet-on games at popular online sportsbooks. There are just too many NFC West and Conference title implications for it not to be. Here's the current betting line:
We'll be completely upfront: we're slowly falling off the Matt Stafford bandwagon. Sure, he torched a bad Jacksonville defense this past weekend, but he's not off the hook yet. He's played very pedestrian since November (almost Jared Goff-like), a stretch where the Rams are 1-3. More than anything else, it feels like defenses have "caught on" to Sean McVay's offense as of late and it's not McVay is known for making adjustments, whether mid-game or mid-season.
A road matchup against this Cardinals defense should be the perfect "measuring stick" game for McVay. The same defense which held the Rams to 20 points in their first meeting back when Stafford and company were firing on all cylinders. Maybe JJ Watt is a goner (due to injury), but make no mistake, this Arizona defense is still one of the league's best even without the pass rusher.
Here's where the Cards' rank in several defensive categories: fourth in points allowed (18.7), fifth in total yards (318.8), tied for fifth in takeaways (23), and seventh in sacks (31). In other words, Arizona can do it all on that side of the ball.
Oh, and did we mention Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are back in the lineup? Well, they are and the Murray-Hopkins pairing should be able to pick apart the Rams' shaky defense akin to the first game when they tallied 37 points. At home, Arizona is the no-brainer bet to make.
Against The Spread: Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
At nine points, the Jacksonville-Tennessee spread is one of the most lopsided of the Sunday games, according to the best NFL betting sites. However, we believe the line is completely unwarranted.
Quite simply, without Derrick Henry in the backfield, the Titans shouldn't be getting nine points against anyone — even against a two-win Jags team. Henry dispels the myth that running back success is largely due to the offensive line and rushers are, more or less, interchangeable. That's certainly not the case in Tennessee and there's no filling the void left by the 6-foot-3, 230-pound Henry.
Without Henry, the Titans have relied on the arm of Ryan Tannehill to win them contests. That strategy has failed miserably the past two games, a stretch in which Tannehill has tossed five interceptions. Tennessee's offense mustered a mere 13 points each of those matchups.
We're not saying Jacksonville will win on the road (they won't), but we're very confident they'll keep it to a one-score game. It's really not about the Jaguars being good at anything, it's more about catching the Titans at the right time — when they're injured and lacking mental confidence. Take the underdog spread here.
Over/Under 52.5 Points: Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It should come as little surprise that this Bills at Bucs matchup has the highest over/under of the entire week. It features two MVP candidates — Josh Allen and Tom Brady — dueling it out in preferablyy good playing conditions (no wind gusts like the Bill-Patriots matchup).
Immediately, we're favoring the over. Injuries have been a problem for Tampa Bay in the secondary all-year long, now they were dealt another blow — safety Mike Edwards was suspended for faking his vaccination status. Things are so dire for the Bucs that they've teased that cornerback Richard Sherman will get reps at safety, a position completely unnatural to him.
Allen will "get his" versus a depleted Tampa secondary, which means Brady will have to keep up the scoring pace, which he's certainly capable of. Bet the over in this Sunday Night primetime matchup.
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