The tennis season really picks up with the Sunshine Double this month in the United States. The first of those events is the BNP Paribas Open, or Indian Wells as it’s known for its California locale. We have expert betting advice on the Indian Wells right here for you so stick around.
- What: 2024 BNP Paribas Open
- When: now until March 17
- Where: Palm Springs, California
Men’s Indian Wells Betting Pick
The caliber of completion on the men’s Indian Wells bracket makes it feel like it’s a Grand Slam. That’s because all but one of the top-35-ranked players in the world made it to the event. Still, the usual names are favored to win the men’s Indian Wells tourney. Per the best tennis betting sites, here are the frontrunners to win:
| Player |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novak Djokovic | +175 | +175 | +175 |
| Jannik Sinner | +275 | +275 | +275 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | +500 | +500 | +500 |
| Daniil Medvedez | +700 | +700 | +700 |
| Alexander Zverev | +1800 | +1800 | +1800 |
Before we get to our pick, we have to mention something likely atop bettor’s minds: Rafael Nadal is not on the playing mix. Many believed one of the sport’s all-time greats would make it back but he withdrew right before it began. He was originally drawn to Medvedev’s side of the bracket but that doesn’t matter any more.
But hey, let’s focus on who is at Indian Wells. The reigning champion Alcaraz is one of the favorites, but we’re personally pessimistic on his chances. The young phenom has looked anything but this season (and for the better half of the last year). Alcaraz hasn’t won a title since Wimbledon and just has little momentum going into this United States tour.
Perhaps surprisingly, we’re also fading Djokovic, the odds-on favorite. You may be surprised to know that Djokovic hasn’t taken an Indian Wells title since 2016 (he has five titles here in total). He’s skipped this event a handful of times, but there are numerous other occasions where Djokovic has just flat-out underperformed. While it’s never a bad idea to put money on the sports G.O.A.T. we’re personally not here as there are better bets.
Sinner is that better bet. We mean, how could you not with his 2024 resume? Sinner has yet to be defeated this season as he holds an unblemished 12-0 mark. That includes an Australian Open title, where he defeated Djokovic in the semis. Given that run, +275 odds feel like a darn steal to us.
Sinner and Alcaraz could collide in the semis — a rematch of last year at this event in the same round. Alcaraz may have won then, but Sinner has quite clearly leveled up since then. Sinner also holds a 4-3 mark in head-to-head battles over Alcaraz so we’re confident he could avenge the loss. All things considered, Sinner is our priority betting pick on the men’s side.
Women’s Indian Wells Betting Pick
Indian Wells has been quite unpredictable from year to year — more so than just about any Masters 1000 event. The men have had a different winner each of the past seven years, but it’s been even longer for the women. The streak of different winners is ten years strong for the women’s side now. Perhaps that’s why it’s no surprise that the Indian Wells odds for women are pretty wide open:
| Player | | | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | +275 | +275 | +275 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | +350 | +350 | +350 |
| Elena Rybakina | +600 | +600 | +600 |
| Coco Gauff | +650 | +650 | +650 |
A “big four” is emerging in women’s singles play akin to the “big three” that long dominated the men’s game. This four-woman group consists of Swiatek, Sabalenka, Gauff and Rybakina. This cohort has combined to take six of the last eight Grand Slams and the previous two Indian Wells. Therefore, you’d be smart to begin with them when making your women’s pick this season.
We’ll use a process of elimination to help make our choice. First of all, we’re axing Sabalenka despite her triumph in Australia earlier this year. Why? Because she’s only played one match since then. That lack of playing time gives us doubts. Plus, the slow playing conditions of Indian Wells don’t really suit Sabalenka’s powerful style.
Rybakina also comes into California with a lack of momentum. She won the 2023 Indian Wells tourney, but history is against her as no woman has repeated as champion since 1991. But even worse, Rybakina has had a 2024 season to forget. First, she lost in the second round of the Australian Open and was forced out early the last time we saw her (due to illness) a few weeks back in Dubai.
So it comes down to Swiatek or Gauff. Both are style fits for the slowed-down pace of these hardcourts. Though we have to agree with oddsmakers and say Swiatek is the better choice. Her body of work both this season and Indian Wells gives us a lot of betting confidence.
It may not feel like it, but Swiatek is 14-2 this season. Yes, she let down at the Australian Open but has responded well since then, including a title in Doha. Better yet, she’s 10-1 at this event over the past two years. Both those marks is why Swiatek should be your top betting consideration for this tourney.
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