2021 Oscars Awards Betting Predictions

The Academy Awards return for its 93rd edition and believe it or not, the show outcomes are complete bettable — not unlike a normal sports game. The Hollywood award show is a perfect side wager during this “downtime” in gambling, and honestly, it’s rich with opportunities! See who we have winning what category right here!

Before we get into our 2021 Oscars betting predictions, let's do some housekeeping about the pinnacle night in the film industry:

When are the Oscars? The show airs live on Sunday, April 25 at 8 pm EST.
How can I watch the Oscars? ABC has exclusive broadcast rights to the event. It'll be shown on its traditional TV channel, as well as certain streaming packages (like Hulu+Live TV and YouTube TV).
Will the Oscars be in-person or Zoom? Yes, an actual event will be held in Los Angeles with nominees expected to attend in person. However, there will be a Zoom option for invitees that can't make it (think international candidates that are restricted from traveling).

Now that we got that out of the way, let's jump into our Oscars betting picks. Every wager is more or less a moneyline bet akin to other sports like golf — pick an outright winner from the field of candidates, simple as that.

Best Picture Pick

Nominees were released for every single award back in mid-March. Most categories are limited to five candidates, but that's not the case with the night's top honor — best picture. Here are the award's current betting lines, per online bookmakers:

Movie
Nomadland	-410	-450
Trial of the Chicago 7	+500	+600
Minari	+1150	+1200
Promising Young Woman	+2500	+1100
Mank	+5000	+2200
Judas and The Black Messiah	+6500	+2200
The Father	+6500	+8000
Sound Of Metal	+8500	+8000

We should preface this pick, and every other for that matter, that Oscar awards are highly subjective. Thousands of filmmakers and movie professionals vote on it. With such a huge voting pool, groupthink is all too common. Who wins what awards sometimes comes down to "narratives" or what people are talking about at the given moment. That will dictate our predictions, not our own personal opinions on certain movies and actors.

Nomadland won the best picture at the Golden Globes in late February and seemingly has all the buzz right now. In history, a total of 48 movies have won best movie at the Globes, then go on to win an Oscar for the same award. All signs point to the female-led Nomadland being lucky no. 49.

Betting pick to make: Nomadland (-410)

Best Actor Pick

Actor
Chadwick Boseman	-2200	-3300
Anthony Hopkins	+1175	+900
Riz Ahmed	+4200	+2000
Gary Oldman	+7000	+3300
Steven Yeun	+8000	+3300

Boseman is taking this award — no ifs, ands, or buts about it. It's one of the safest bets of the night, hence the staggering odds in his direction.

Of course, Boseman tragically passed away last August at 43 years young. The award show has a long history of posthumous winners and c'mon, do you think voters will really want to go against a dead guy in this category? No way. Bet Boseman here if you want a lay-up win, albeit a low-paying one.

Betting pick to make: Chadwick Boseman (-2200)

Best Actress Pick

Actor
Carey Mulligan	+105	+125
Viola Davis	+245	+175
Andra Day	+485	+500
Frances McDormand	+520	+450
Vanessa Kirby	+1350	+1200

At last, a category with true betting value rather than a runaway favorite. We could realistically see this award going to multiple candidates.

But after a year ripe with racial tension in the United States, we get the sense that diversity will be top of mind among voters this year. This category features two black women up for the honor in the same year — a feat that hadn't been achieved since 1973. And honestly, we think one of the two wins (if so, it would mark only the second time ever a black woman took the hardware).

Both are worthy winners who portrayed iconic singers in the roles that earned them the nomination. Day played Billie Holliday, while Davis played Ma Rainey. This race is as close as it gets, which is why we advise betting on BOTH of them. With plus-money odds, you're bound to come up profitable as long as one wins, which we wholeheartedly believe will be the case.

Betting pick to make: Viola Davis (+175) and Andra Day (+500)

Best Director Pick

Over/Under
Under 6.5 Pick	-125
Over 6.5 Pick	-115

As we've already alluded to, the Oscars are narrative-driven and history matters big time. Welp, history has already been made here. For the first time in the award's 93-year existence, the Academy nominated two women for Best Director — betting favorite Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman).

But even then, Zhao's nomination means just a little more. Born in Beijing, she's the first Asian woman to earn a Best Director nominee. Again, with the recent hate against Asians in America, Zhao's winning feels like the perfect statement.

Betting pick to make: Chloe Zhao (-1400)

As a film director would say, "cut" because that's all the predictions we have today! We stuck to the four biggest awards since there's the most interest in these categories, but for a full list of 2021 Oscars odds, check out one of the sportsbooks below. You'll find lines for other honors like Best Animated Film or Best Original Score and everything in between.

But while you're at it, also check out which player promotions the listed bookmakers currently have. Doing so can net you money before the Oscars even start. These sites offer free play deals to both new players (sign-up bonus) and returning ones (reload bonus). The table underneath has details on existing sign-up deals, which are the most lucrative.