Almost nobody could predict a Final Four that includes Florida Atlantic, Miami, San Diego State, and UConn — none of which were top-3 seeds. But here we are in one of the wildest Final Fours in history with no "bluebloods" in sight. Keep reading cause you’ll want our free betting picks on the three Final Four games that remain!
Against The Spread: Florida Atlantic vs. San Diego State
We’re going to have one mid-major in the national championship out of this game — again, something that was unthinkable beforehand. The top betting sites for basketball are favoring San Diego State to prevail over Florida Atlantic, but just barely. Here’s a look at the betting spread:
This is the ultimate good offense vs. good defense matchup. The 35-3 Owls out of the esteemed Conference USA bring the high-octane attack into the matchup. They’re averaging 71.3 points per game this NCAA Tournament run. In particular, Florida Atlantic is doing most of its damage from beyond the arc. Whereas the college game has shifted toward big men, the Owls look like the prototypical run-and-fun offense you’d see in the NBA.
The Aztecs are the antithesis of the Owls’ plating style. They’re long, they’re tough, and they’re absolutely suffocating on the defensive end. They’ve held three of four opponents this tourney to under 60 points. The one outlier was number one-seeded Alabama, who managed only 64 points against San Diego State’s swarming defense.
We’ll be completely honest, we think the Aztecs will prevail on Saturday night. The Owls, who are averaging almost 30 three-point shots per game this tourney, aren’t going to get any easy looks this game. SDSU will grind them down and make them earn every point — a problem when you’re not necessarily the deepest talent-wise like Florida Atlantic is.
But will San Diego State cover the 3-point spread? After all, Florida Atlantic has shown a knack for late-game flurries and comebacks — putting them away certainly won’t be easy. Still, our money is going on the Aztecs’ spread. They will stifle the three-point shot and unless the Owls get creative offensively, SDSU should win by two possessions minimum.
Against The Spread: Miami vs. UConn
This is a solid matchup, and what some are calling the de-facto championship game given how both teams are playing. As it stands, UConn is a comfortable favorite to advance over Miami:
We completely see why oddsmakers are making the Huskies 5.5-point favorites. They’ve been the runaway best team all of March Madness. Every single one of UConn’s tourney wins has come by double digits. They entered the tourney red-hot and haven’t let up in the slightest. The Huskies' 6-foot-9 forward Adam Sanogo is a representation of the NCAA’s big men-led revolution. He’s averaging 17.1 points and 7.5 rebounds this year, both team highs.
The Hurricanes, though, are one of the few teams that win on their guard play. And oh, boy, do they have a great one in ACC Player of the Year Isaiah Wong. Whether he’s running Miami’s pick-and-roll or shooting from deep, Wong is making plays for himself and his teammates.
We’re pretty confident that the Huskies advance to the NCAA championship, but we’re just as confident that the Canes cover the spread. They have a highly underrated big man down low in Norchad Omier that’s going to be a tough matchup for Sanogo. That, paired with superior guard play, means this game goes down to the wire. If so, that benefits Miami covering 5.5 points.
Bonus Bet: San Diego State vs. UConn
If our betting picks are on the money, then that sets up a title game showdown between UConn and San Diego State. More than likely, the Huskies will be the betting favorites to win given their school’s history and current run (they have the best futures line right now of the four). They haven’t lost a non-conference game all season so a Huskies moneyline pick makes sense.
However, we don’t think San Diego State will just roll over either. If you can get a five-point underdog spread on them, at minimum, we’d urge you to take the Aztecs. They would have the size and physicality advantage, which could slow down the high-flying Huskies.
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